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Broad selloff seeps into the grain market

Afternoon market recap: Corn, soybeans, wheat and a broad set of other commodities trend lower in midweek trading.

Ben Potter, Senior editor

May 29, 2024

6 Min Read
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At a Glance

  • Corn prices stumble 1.5% lower, with soybeans down more than 1.25%
  • Wheat prices suffer a variable technical setback, with some contracts down almost 1.5%
  • Plus: Even though you can’t control the weather, learn more about how to control your marketing plan!

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A broad selloff that negatively affected everything from stocks to energy futures also spilled into the grain market on Wednesday, leaving nearly everything in the red. Corn prices eroded 1.5% lower, soybeans lost more than 1.25%, and wheat prices faded 0.75% to 1.5% lower. Cattle and hog futures were also in the red. In fact, the only commodity that saw any upside was soyoil futures, which firmed almost 0.75% higher.

More rains will be moving through the central U.S. later this week, with some fields set to gather another 1” to 2” or more between Thursday and Sunday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to seasonally dry conditions for the Northern Plains and upper Midwest between June 5 and June 11, with colder-than-normal conditions emerging in the eastern Corn Belt during this time.

On Wall St., the Dow eroded another 388 points lower in afternoon trading to 38,464 on rising Treasury yields and getting further weighed down by weakness in the airline sector. Energy futures were also on the downward slide, with crude oil down more than 0.5% this afternoon to $79 per barrel. Diesel dropped 1%, while gasoline stumbled more than 1.5% lower. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.

On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+3,000) and CBOT wheat (+2,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-7,000), soybeans (-8,500) and soymeal (-4,000).

Corn

Corn prices succumbed to a round of technical selling partly spurred by seasonal planting pressure and spillover weakness from a broad set of other commodities on Wednesday. July futures dropped 7 cents to $4.5550, with September futures down 6 cents to $4.6550.

Corn basis bids were steady to mixed after sliding 2 cents lower at an Ohio river terminal while firming 2 to 8 cents at two other Midwestern locations on Wednesday.

Corn plantings moved from 70% a week ago up to 83% through Sunday, mirroring analyst expectations. That puts this season’s pace moderately below 2023’s mark of 89% and slightly ahead of the prior five-year average of 82%. North Carolina is the first among the top 18 production states to reach 100% completion, with Texas (92%) and Nebraska (91%) following close behind. More than half (58%) of this season’s corn crop is now emerged, up from 40% a week ago.

JJ Keske, ag risk management advisor with Advance Trading, reminds farmers that even though you can’t control the weather, you still can control your marketing plan. “It is common for farmers to let attention slip from the markets until their crops emerge,” he notes. “Though it’s tough to market a crop with so many unknowns, it can be done. The first step is to have a flexible plan in place.” Keske walks through some options in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.

Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU corn imports during the 2023/24 marketing year reached 657.4 million bushels through May 26, which is 33% lower than last year’s pace so far.

South Korea purchased 2.6 million bushels of animal feed corn, likely sourced from South Africa, in a private deal that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival in early September.

Corn settlements on Friday were for 255,610 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybean prices followed corn and a broad set of other commodities lower after a round of technical selling that was partly triggered by ongoing U.S. planting progress and replenished global stocks following another massive Brazilian harvest, which is nearly complete. July futures lost 16.5 cents to $12.13, with August futures down 16 cents to $12.13.

The rest of the soy complex was mixed. July soymeal futures tumbled more than 2% lower, while July soyoil futures tracked more than 0.5% higher.

Soybean basis bids held steady across the central U.S. on Wednesday.

Soybean plantings moved from 52% a week ago up to 68% as of May 26. That’s noticeably below 2023’s pace of 78% but still five points better than the prior five-year average of 63%. Mississippi (92%) and Arkansas (88%) are leading the way among the top 18 production states so far. Soybean emergence improved from 26% last week up to 39% through Sunday.

How close are you to being finished with planting? Share your insights with us in our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey! This is an ongoing crowd-sourced farmer survey where your peers share what’s going on at their farm throughout the growing season. New comments are reviewed and uploaded on a regular basis.

European Union soybean imports during the 2023/24 marketing year 418.9 million bushels through May 26, which is fractionally lower than last year’s pace so far. EU soymeal imports are also slightly below last year’s pace so far, with 14.0 million metric tons over the same period.

Soybean settlements on Friday were for 241,144 contracts.

Wheat

Wheat prices faced variable losses following an ample round of technical selling and profit-taking on Wednesday after touching 10-month highs earlier this week. July Chicago SRW futures fell 7 cents to $6.9325, July Kansas City HRW futures lost 10.5 cents to $7.2075, and July MGEX spring wheat futures dropped 5 cents to $7.5250.

Winter wheat quality ratings shifted one point lower last week, with 48% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition through May 26. Analysts were expecting ratings to hold steady this past week. Another 33% of the crop is rated fair (unchanged from last week), with the remaining 19% rated poor or very poor (up one point from last week). Physiologically, 77% of the crop is now headed, compared to 69% in the prior week.

Spring wheat plantings progressed from 79% a week ago up to 88% through Sunday. That’s faster than both 2023’s pace of 79% and the prior five-year average of 81%.

European Union soft wheat exports during the 2023/24 marketing year are tracking 4% below the prior year’s pace so far after reaching 1.021 billion bushels through May 26. EU barley exports are down 14% over the same period, with 243.4 million bushels.

India hasn’t imported wheat for the past six years but plans to break that cycle in an attempt to boost its domestic reserves to around 367 million bushels. To help facilitate this process, India’s government will likely eliminate a 40% tax on wheat imports until October, which will kick off the next domestic production season.

Jordan issued an international tender to purchase 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes on June 4. The grain is for shipment in July and August.

And finally, scouts and officials recently completed a three day wheat quality tour of Kansas and a small portion of Nebraska and Oklahoma. What did they discover during this tour? Farm broadcaster Mike Pearson took a closer look in today’s edition of Farm Progress America – click here to listen.

CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 125,162 contracts.

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About the Author(s)

Ben Potter

Senior editor, Farm Futures

Senior Editor Ben Potter brings two decades of professional agricultural communications and journalism experience to Farm Futures. He began working in the industry in the highly specific world of southern row crop production. Since that time, he has expanded his knowledge to cover a broad range of topics relevant to agriculture, including agronomy, machinery, technology, business, marketing, politics and weather. He has won several writing awards from the American Agricultural Editors Association, most recently on two features about drones and farmers who operate distilleries as a side business. Ben is a graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism.

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