Russian LNG to Europe: Is it Game Over?

Russian LNG keeps flowing into the EU, albeit at a much lower level. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Xclusiv said that “over two years since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU continues its efforts to weaken Russia financially through sanctions. The latest move grants individual member states the authority to ban Russian Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports. Under new EU gas market regulations, governments can prevent Russian and Belarusian gas exporters from participating in auctions for pipeline and LNG infrastructure capacity used to deliver gas to Europe. While pipeline gas imports from Russia to the EU dropped significantly in 2023 (down 84% compared to 2021), Russia remains a major supplier of LNG to Europe, generating substantial revenue from this trade. In fact, Europe’s reliance on Russian LNG has grown in 2024”.

According to Xclusiv, “so far this year, Russia has supplied 4.89 million metric tons (mt) of LNG to Europe, representing over 16% of the continent’s total LNG imports (33.65 million mt). This shows an increase compared to the 12.74% share Russia held in the first four months of 2023. Notably, France, Spain and Belgium have been the largest European importers of Russian LNG this year. Despite Russia’s significant role in Europe’s LNG market, the EU’s decision alone may not be sufficient to end these imports.

Full implementation requires backing from all EU member states, ensuring alternative suppliers like the US and Qatar can provide enough LNG to completely replace Russian imports. As of now, European LNG imports in 2024 total 33.65 million mt. The US leads the pack as the largest supplier with 51% of the market share, followed by Russia (16%), Algeria (10%), Qatar (8%), and Nigeria (4%)”, the shipbroker said.

Meanwhile, shifting focus from Russia to China, Xclusiv commented that “the Chinese economy is still seeking to establish a solid growth trajectory. As part of this effort, China recently announced plans to create a coal capacity reserve system by 2027. This system aims to bolster energy security by ensuring a more flexible and readily available supply of coal. By 2030, China strives to achieve a yearly coal capacity reserve of 300 million tonnes. Despite being the world’s leading consumer and producer of coal, China has also seen a significant increase in seaborne coal imports. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, these imports jumped by 17% in the first quarter of 2024. On the other hand, China’s independent refineries experienced a decline in bitumen blend imports during March 2024. However, this decrease is expected to be temporary. Once sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil expire, which is anticipated to happen by mid-April, imports are likely to rebound. If sanctions on Venezuelan oil are reinstated, China’s independent refineries could become the sole buyers of this crude oil”, the shipbroker concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide